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GDP growth and welfare in developing countries: the case study of Nigeria from 2022-2022
Elias Oluwasegun, Emmanuel
This dissertation sought to assess the impact of economic growth, particularly measured by GDP growth, on various welfare indicators within the framework of Nigeria's economy over the past two decades (2002-2022). A critical literature review laid the groundwork, surveying existing research to establish a comprehensive understanding of the theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence related to economic growth and welfare. The chosen methodology involved the analysis of trends in GDP growth and welfare indicators using secondary data collected from reputable sources. Multivariate regression analysis, executed with the STATA software, enabled a simultaneous examination of the effects of GDP growth on key indicators such as inequality, poverty, unemployment, and life expectancy. The study aimed to provide valuable insights into Nigeria's economic dynamics and their repercussions on societal well-being. By scrutinizing the nuanced relationships between GDP growth and various welfare metrics, the research contributes not only to academic scholarship but also informs policy formulation. The outcomes of this analysis are expected to guide policymakers and stakeholders in shaping strategies that promote sustainable economic growth, thereby positively impacting inequality, poverty rates, unemployment, and overall life expectancy. In essence, this thesis represents a systematic effort to unravel the complexities of the economic-social nexus in Nigeria, offering a holistic perspective on the ramifications of economic growth on the broader welfare landscape.
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Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe
Janota, Martin ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.
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Determinants of inflation in Ghana
Yao Ani-Frimpong, Selorm
The crux of this master thesis was to analyze if the inflationary trend in Ghana is a monetary phenomenon. Over the decades, numerous studies done on inflation in Ghana tend to converge on the postulation that money supply does exert some influence on inflationary trend. The argument has always been if money supply has a significant or less than significant impact on inflationary trend. Those for the argument that, the money supply has a less than significant influence buttress their points with how other factors such as fiscal policies, exchange rate, input cost, cost of imports affect inflation in the Ghanaian economy. Certainly these factors plus a host of others, based on investigations, were revealed to significantly influence inflation. In some studies, the influence of monetary factors was shown to have significantly eroded based on the time period used in the investigations respectively. This thesis thus set out to investigate both divides of the argument, whether inflation is still significantly affected by monetary factors or other factors are gradually casting their shadows over inflation. The other factors considered aside the monetary ones (broad money growth, monetary policy rate) for the thesis are exchange rate, GDP growth rate and crude oil price.
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The determinants of foreign direct investment in Ghana
Eghan, Jonathan Ronald Muller
ABSTRACT Foreign direct investment and its determinants have been extensively examined by many scholars in hopes to analyze and identify how these determinants impact FDI and in some cases vice versa. The determinants of FDI used in this study include GDP growth and inflation in Ghana. The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between FDI, GDP growth and inflation and this was achieved with the help of the vector autoregressive model which helped us explain the granger causation relationship between the variables. Econometric methodologies such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test among others were used to support the objective of the VAR model. The study covered the period from 1980 to 2015 and employed secondary data which was gathered from the World Bank. The results from the VAR model proved that GDP growth and inflation have no linear causation relationship with FDI in Ghana within the analyzed period. These results were ascertained in the condition that within the studied period, the current values of FDI were not determined by the past values of GDP growth and inflation. The study recommended that the Government must create an enabling environment for foreign investors. Also, the Government must showcase the investment potentials of Ghana globally through technological spillovers among others.
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Effects of the value added tax reform on the economy of Republic of Macedonia
Angelovski, Filip
In the year 2000 the old turnover tax was replaced and the value added tax was introduced. The aim of the bachelor thesis is to explore the impact of the value added tax on the economy in the Republic of Macedonia. The research explores the effects from this reform on the GDP as the most important measurement for the economic growth and the inflation rate as the indicator for the price change. For that reason, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is applied from the period 1995 to 2016 with yearly data from VAT and turnover tax revenues, GDP growth and inflation rate. In addition to that empirical analysis, Granger test and forecasting technique are used to explore causality and to predict the future behavior. Moreover, the impact of the VAT revenues on the state’s budget of the Republic of Macedonia is investigated. The Ordinary least squares (OLS) model is used analyzing the time series data that unites the revenues from the turnover tax and the VAT under single variable on yearly basis from 1994 to 2016. The Chaw test is implemented in the OLS model to find the structural break that is caused in the revenues by the implementation of the VAT. In the thesis the topics of tax evasion and the role of the Public Revenue Office are discussed as well.
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Central bank independence and its international dimension
Mišák, Vojtěch ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kučera, Adam (referee)
The aim of the bachelor thesis is to investigate central bank independence with the stress on its international dimension. We use spatial analyses to show the spatial spillover effect of central bank independence. We give few possible economic explanations, why central banks influence each other's independence. Because our data suffer from spatial correlation in error terms we had to used GMM estimation of our models. The most important finding of our research is that the distance is an important factor when describing the international dimension of central bank independence. Interested reader can look at the estimates of our control variables (Central bank transparency, Rule of law, Growth of GDP, membership in international organizations, Openness to trade and Inflation targeting regime) to better understand what determines the level of Central bank independence. Probably the most important finding are the estimates of Rule of Law, Growth of GDP and OECD and WTO membership. Surprisingly, Rule of Law has a negative impact on the level of central bank independence. On the other hand, countries that are members of OECD and WTO tend to have more autonomous central banks. Finally, we have compared our results to existing literature.
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Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe
Janota, Martin ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.
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Podmíněný Účinek Institucí na Hospodářský Růst: liší se systematicky úroveň institucí se stupněm hospodářského rozvoje?
Shvechikov, Ivan ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The institutional quality concept, advanced by academic literature as a mean to enhance output growth, suffer from the absence of a clear implementation strategy. Considering that developing countries usually lack resources to be able to afford large-scale universal institutional reforms, the lack of roadmap puts substantial obstacles to practical application of the given concept. This thesis therefore goes beyond the simple statement of institutional primacy and sets an objective to differentiate the institutional effects relative to the level of development. To test it empirically, fixed effects model is chosen and interaction terms between the measures of institutional quality and the share of middle class are employed. Obtained coefficients indicate that institutions promote economic growth only when middle class share exceeds 25%. At the same time, different aspects of institutional quality exhibit contradictory dynamics. The control of corruption becomes growth enhancing only when middle class constitutes over one third of the population, while the relevance of government effectiveness for economic growth on the contrary decreases with the enlargement of middle class. These findings confirm the presence of conditionality and deny the existence of universal recipe for institutional reforms. Implementation of better institutions based on context-specific approach would therefore bring greater results in terms of economic growth than the direct adoption of best-practice institutions, so intensively advanced by the World Bank and the IMF.
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Dopad přímých zahraničních investic z Evropské unie na Singapur
Hrazdíra, Adam ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of FDI flows from the European countries to Singapore. The analysis focuses on the period between 1995 and 2013. The work begins with the review of the relevant literature. The most important findings about spillover, spinoff effects, and the main FDI determinants are summarized in tables. The empirical part reveals the trends of FDI in Singapore with an emphasis on the influence of FDI from European countries. The work contains two main research questions: Does FDI from European countries have a positive impact on GDP growth in Singapore? Is it possible to identify the main determinants that attract FDI in Singapore? Time series analyses and panel analyses are used in the dissertation. Among the most valuable results belong the confirmation of a positive impact of FDI from Europe on GDP growth and the identification of some of the main positive determinants for attracting FDI in Singapore.
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The financial crisis and its impact on U.S. gross domestic product growth
Cimala, Petr ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Dočkal, Dalibor (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to quantify the impact of the 2008 financial crisis to U.S. economic growth and also identify potential scenarios for future development. For this purpose, there was selected a sample of historical cases of financial crisis where followed the process of deleveraging. Identified impacts were applied to estimate the future GDP growth. In the period 0-5 years after the crisis GDP typically slowed by 40-45%, in 0-7 year horizon by 28-35%, and in the 10 year horizon by 17-20%. In a case of deducting export effect, slowdown of GDP growth is even higher. For the next 8 years average U.S. GDP growth is estimated to 2.26-2.6%. Compared with the pre-crisis period, slowdown reaches 14-25%. Process of deleveraging is now in the one third of the expected duration. The financial sector and household sector remains vulnerable to return the economy into recession and will deleverage further. Non-financial firms are sound. The greatest risk is hidden in the public sector which is experiencing high deficits and uncontrolled growth of debt. Debt is starting to approach level that may reduce long-term dynamics of GDP growth. The future path is in the hands of government officials. Fiscal consolidation treat the root of the problem, but it is painful and hard to approve. Delays in solving the problem is less painful way, but it can result in massive government debt, as it is now in Japan. Repeating Japan scenario is unlikely. The magnitude of balance sheet recession in Japan was much larger. The measures taken have not been so quick and strong.
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